The ominous…  Ten years of the market, weekly bars.  A year ago at an AAPTA meeting  we told professional technical analysts that we wouldn’t have a bear market until the long term trendline was broken.  As seen below prices have (so far) bounced off the long term trendline.

While it might provoke short term joy the post bounce is questioned by the nearby data and so the bottom may have to be tested.  At best we might have a V bottom, but considering the craziness of recent markets it be foolish  to bet on anything.

At worst, and ominous, we might be looking at a historic massive year long top.  And why not, considering the historic bull market since March 09.  So it is quite possible that we are loooking at a truly historic double top.  We would not call it a classic double top, but in these mad and bizarre times classic paradigms of any kind will shortly be tweeted to death — or foolishly debunked as fake news.

The depth of this formation is approximately 3500 points.  That would compute to a downside target of 19440.

Remember.  We do not do prophecy here.  We just analyze the charts operating from classic principles and report what they imply.  Here the implications are obvious:  beware the bear and be aware that the risk is on the downside and posssible rewards are slim to non-existant for bulls.



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