Archive for April, 2009

Platinum. Trading and Trending.

Posted on Apr 30, 2009 by .

1

Some of our adroit readers correctly saw the short term pattern in PGM and bailed.  This was skillful.  From a trading viewpoint.  On the other hand the trend is still up.  The downwave here looks nasty (13.4%) but it is well within the general trend.  Also of interest the price is right at the present breakaway gap — these tend to arrest declines.  Also the last gap looks like an exhaustion gap.  Traders who bailed might want to stick a toe back in and we are thinking of increasing our trend commitment.  

Continue Reading

Any QQQQuestions?

Posted on Apr 28, 2009 by .

0

Like it or not, or believe it or not, or trade it or not the QQQQs appear to have put in a bottom and to have broken out.  Ordinarily we would think this bullish for the other indices, and it might be.  But times are parlous.  Regardless it behooves readers not to be short, or to be long.  Given the virtues of natural hedging scaling in is in order.  We pointed this out a while back when it broke out, but as all of us who had Jewish (in our case Scottish) mothers know a little nagging gets the kids to do what is good for them.

Continue Reading

Portents of doom?

Posted on Apr 26, 2009 by .

0

It is difficult to look at the long term chart of the S&P and not feel a sense of profound uneasiness.  Months ago — before the fall — we posted in one of our chat groups a joke that was taken seriously.  We said that measuring from the top of this double top to the neckline that an S&P of -4 was predicted.  An upwave like this demands correcting, and considering the wretched excess of the upwave you might expect the downwave from hell.  A tsunami begets a tsunami.  Fortunately there is an alternative.  Sidewaves can substitute for downwave.  This scenario would imply a sideways market for quite some time.  The good news is that the size of the sideways would be sufficient for the clever and quick and readers of this letter  (who are by definition clever and quick) to cash in.  

Continue Reading

Are we there yet?

Posted on Apr 25, 2009 by .

0

No, and not likely to be so any time soon.  We have remarked on our remarks (quite remarkable remarks in retrospect) back in December when we remarked that what was forming was not a Kilroy (orH&S) bottom because of the failure to rise of the right side shoulder/hand. (Marked on chart.) Prices rounded over after that and plunged again.  We are in somewhat the same situation at present.  The explosive really from March    is in the area of a right hand/shoulder and could well be forming a hand.  It could also round over and test the March low.  After a rise like March –a pronounced upwave — a downwave is to be expected.  You will remember that sidewaves can take the place of downwaves.  it appears that we are in this sidewave now, but there is not enough of it to be dispositive.  It can resolve itself into a downwave or can breakout to the upside and we will have a completed Kilroy that some of our readers have been looking for.  The pattern is similar in the SPX and in the INDU, with the SPX more fully developed.There is some interpretation involved here as the hands are not very deep.  And it is possible that this formation is part of a much larger Kilroy –see note on shoulder/hand Apr 09.  It would be possible for both to be true.  Evaluating the bottom to this point –and once again speculating to a certain extent– we can easily see 6 months more of bottom work before there is anything remotely resembling a bull market.  At the same time the waves are so large and violent that a modest trading ability should be able to reap some unusual profits.  The lottery tickets, mad money and wild speculation we made in our personal account over the past few months (F, C, FNM, FRE,  etcetc) show profits that look like a futures account.

Continue Reading

Beaten down tech stocks worth looking at….

Posted on Apr 22, 2009 by .

1

We mentioned a few days ago a group of tech stocks worth a look  This group has a bunch of chart patterns in common — complex and double bottoms with well defined necklines and signs of recent strength in the rally.  Given our identification of the Qs as a buy a short time back here are some individual issues worth a look.  The featured chart shows a buy signal:

Continue Reading

 Page 1 of 4  1  2  3  4 »