More prediction? Milton Friedman where is thy sting?

090522spx

Predict early.  Predict often.  Predict confidently.  Then when one of your predictions has come to pass trumpet it fearlessly.  Well, actually the present instance is really not that much of a prediction.  More of a, what would happen if…?  As we have remarked and marked on the chart the S&P has certain possibilities to turn into a Kilroy (or H&S) bottom.  On November 21 there was a hand (shoulder) at 741.02. Then, in a wave which had 30 days up and 42 days down a nose (head) was made March 6 at 666.09 (the devil’s number!).  The present rally and upwave is now 54 days long, 44 of it up.  If a pleasant symmetry were to be achieved a low would be reached in 18 days and we would have a beautiful Kilroy bottom –given of course that the March 6 low were not taken out.  If that happened we had all better get our bottled water and our Uzis and fence the property so that Democrat Socialists (or worse, Democrat Communists)  (or worse still, Democrat Anarchists) don’t come prowling around to try to take our Kruggerrands or our apples and pears.  So far it appears that this upwave has peaked in the 44 day upwave and for 10 days has drawn back.  Three days away have occurred to make that point.  Price is also ideally placed close to the neckline resistance with the 200 day moving average bearing down on it.  We haven’t checked the planets, our tarot card reader is out of town and Karnak got off with the crystal ball so if anyone says we predicted that the market would tank we’re going to whistle and walk away.  Meantime, as we have said, you don’t need to know what the future holds to know what to do right now.  We are personally short the S&P.  (One unit.)

08-kilroyvf-copyNow, isn’t that more descriptive than an upside down head and shoulders bottom?

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  1. alain

    thank you for the comment. See close relationship between commodity stocks and commodities at the moment. Groups like agri-related, non cyclic, energy, gold & silver, ferrous miners, steel producers, deep sea shippers (latter 3 to watch more careful) and some emerging markets seem to continue their rally unimpressed of the S&P’s consolidation/weakness, so far.

    Alain

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