Archive for August, 2010

Bull, bear, mule….greased pig?

Posted on Aug 28, 2010 by .

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2010-8-27-indu

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03149889863&a=204730441

Sometimes the lexicon is strained to describe the market.  While this is technically a mule (or sideways) market, mule hardly describes it.  In the past we have made significant contributions to the nomenclature — Kilroy (H&S) Bottoms, bungee markets, squirrel markets, dumpity bumpety patterns– (we understand that these contributions have been eagerly adopted in Roumania and Kazakstan).

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S&P wave bottom?

Posted on Aug 27, 2010 by .

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2010-8-27-spx

Every trade is fraught with danger at inception, and every wave change is fraught with uncertainty.  But the S&P (and the Dow) is breaking the hourly trendline so we are initiating a light trade in the S&P.  This is a trade, not a trend investment.  And is aggressive.

The conservative trade comes on the breaking of  the upper trendline on strength.

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Bond party over?

Posted on Aug 27, 2010 by .

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2010-8-27-tlt

This looks like the top of the bond wave for the moment.  We are buying some TBT — in effect shorting the bonds.

We remarked a few letters ago on the gap which is being closed that it might be an exhaustion gap.  We also warned against buying bonds. Now we get to say what we most love to say:  We told you so —

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BWP CODI FTR ETC,ETC Dividend stocks

Posted on Aug 26, 2010 by .

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2010-8-26-codi

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CODI&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p20970412253&a=207232007

2010-8-26-ftr
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FTR&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p20970412253&a=207230758

2010-8-26-bwp
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BWP&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p20970412253&a=207230755

2010-8-26-pgh
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PGH&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p20970412253&a=207230764

Here is our attitude about “risky” high yielding dividend stocks.  Ordinarily buyers of yield are  chary of high yielding issues because they are “high risk”.  Last time we looked it seemed like everything was high risk.  But let us look at the way that edwards-magee handles risk.  We measure it, analyze it and set a stop.  As opposed to 90% of market participants. (And 100% of mutual fund managers.)

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TLT. Don’t nudge the pinball machine. It will TILT.

Posted on Aug 24, 2010 by .

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2010-08-24-tlt

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p20970412253&a=207054001

Very often trading/investing success hinges not on what you buy, but on what you don’t buy.  Here are some things to not buy:  TLT IEF LQD CIU BND TIP PTTDX.

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