Archive for May, 2012

Kangaroo market — boxing and waltzing…

Posted on May 31, 2012 by .

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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p88572661534&a=214966864

We have now spent 8 days trying to put in a bottom for this downwave.  The result is like boxing with kangaroos — they usually win we understand.  The fact that each attempt to drive the market down has been met by buying (seen from the long tails — or lower shadows) indicates we are on support.  Against this support the big short term traders are trading on news — mainly from Europe — to exacerbate volatility and create short term profits.  For themselves it goes without saying.

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A week of weirdness…

Posted on May 26, 2012 by .

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Or it could be called the week of the long tails.  Wednesday was nothing less than bizarre with the Dow down triple digits and then reversing to finish up.   All in all the SPX transversed  86.9 points to close up 22.60.  Here is the way we read it:  Lots of bears are still hiding in the woods and betting their opinion, driving prices down.  Other contrarians and investors are seizing these prices as opportunities.  The extreme ranges  — 9.97 to 24.18 —  reflect a struggle going on for the soul of the market.  But overall we see the market being born again as a bull calf (Molach?–well, whatever).  This all looks like wave ending and reversing behavior, and our personal accounts are long.  Readers , who in general are more patient and smarter than we are, probably never blinked, though prices got within a hair (1291.98) of the Basing Point stop (1289.51)

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Buy signals….

Posted on May 21, 2012 by .

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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p55455624798&a=266398464&listNum=1

Some of our near sighted brethern (starting with ourselves) have remarked on the difficulty of nano charts so we are going to try to make it easier for everybody by posting links to full size charts.

Whether full size or mini size today looks like a reversal day and we partially lifted our hedges in the Qs and SPX.

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Glimmers of a wave end?

Posted on May 20, 2012 by .

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Friday had some subtle characteristics of wave ending phenomena.  In a pattern of rising volume Friday’s stood out.  In the TLT (not illustrated here) there were hints of wave ending behavior.  Also we got facebook out of our hair.  As someone remarked, a cultural catastrophe.  And, for our money, a fad which even teenagers will tire of.  We were tired of it before it had its first billion users.  A billion?  A billion people are undressing in public?  But we digress.

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Gold awakes. Market on slippery slope…

Posted on May 17, 2012 by .

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The gold chart looks pretty suspicious to us.  One bar doth not a trend make, but as a speculation we like it, so we closed our shorts and went long  1 unit of a 5 unit position.  Note that the conservative trade is when the downtrend line is penetrated.

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