more sideways — the long view

Posted on Aug 17, 2018 by in Letters

http://schrts.co/1cRGsp

Recently we have heard pundits remark that we have a double top here.  Double tops are rare (in spite of the frequency of reference).  When we went looking for an example of one in the literature the examples we came up with were not satisfying.  Rather this picture looks like to us as a blow off phase following by the market struggling vigorously to recover and struggling against the constant sniping of short term traders and contrarians.  In spite of this sniping the market has nearly reached the previous top.  It will not be in the clear until a new confirmed high is made.  During this struggle we consider it unwise to be heavily invested — that time will come with the new high. Volatility has been high and will continue to be until the contrarians are overcome.

We have very small positions in UPRO and spare change positions in AAPL, AMZN,  QQQ, IBM, FB, GOOG.  Readers will react with horror at this change in method, but nobody is perfect and even Homer gets bored as they say.

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