Dow coils. Snake market. Getting ready to bite Santa Claus

Posted on Dec 20, 2008 by in Letters

Mark Hulbert has recently noted that his best performing newsletters (he doesn't track this one) are tending bullish, while some good performers are forecasting more downward action.  Which of these forecasts is correct?  Which of these forecasts is wise?  The answer is neither and neither.  It never ceases to amaze us that analysts will endanger their proboscis to flying eggs.  Not that we haven't had egg on our face frequently, but as the Spanish say, son casos completemente distinctos.  The truth is this:  the market is at the moment sideways and coiling.  The range is tightening and the near term direction is most likely more sideways.  The shortening of range may well result in some fireworks next week.  Next week is amateur week.  The real traders are in the Hamptons, Maine and Aspen for the holidays, so are probably unavailable to deal with any irrational exhuberance either way, up or down.  For most of our readers-- investors and trend followers -- these largely meaningless forecasts and speculations will be of only passing interest.  Speaking of speculation, which we will in just a New York Minute, we shorted the bonds which we will explain in a later posting.  We will also do some speculating shortly on investment strategies.  For this moment here is the Indu 

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