How much is enough? Or, enough already.

Posted on Mar 26, 2009 by in Letters

Having been fat bears for sometime feeling the wounds of the bull's horns is no fun.  It will of course be more fun if you observed our caution to put on long hedges and take some profits and scale out some.  Now the question is when will the bulls be satisfied.  Contrarians and traders everywhere are licking their chops and looking for the first opportunity to get short off this rally.  We too think the rally is a limited time move.  We think (not a thought, but an analysis) that the recent low will be revisited.  this is partly based on the thesis that the market intends to drive as many people crazy as possible, and a good rally here and then another dive would drive most investors screaming mad.  The present rally is 22.48% and 15 days.

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