Archive for July, 2010

T Bonds. Chart nightmares. Inflation/deflation. Stagflation.

Posted on Jul 31, 2010 by .

0

2010-07-31 ust10

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$UST&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p30923843948&a=205377734

We conjectured,  just a letter ago that there might be a double top in the bond ETF (TLT).  This chart ought to put paid to that notion.  The bond market may be about to go parabolic. (Read, BUBBLE.)  Here it’s making a new high in the 10 years.  If you’re in it great.  If not stand aside lest you get splattered with the inevitable bloodshed.

Continue Reading

F, TLT (bonds)

Posted on Jul 28, 2010 by .

0

2010-07-28 f

It looks like Ford has completed shaking out weak holders (and traders with stops, including us).  This is a breakout and we’d put a money management stop about 5% down.

More importantly TLT, which is the long bond ETF looks suspicious.

2010-07-28 tlt

Continue Reading

All that glitters…

Posted on Jul 28, 2010 by .

0

Screen shot 2010-07-27 at 7.31.01 PM

We are partially hedging our gold positions with GLL as this looks like negative developments to us.  More patient traders will observe the Basing Point stop at 110.25.

Continue Reading

Heads up. Head and shoulders? Does it matter?

Posted on Jul 25, 2010 by .

0

Screen shot 2010-07-25 at 12.44.12 PM

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p30009483985&a=203282118

We sometimes admonish (also abjure, berate, harass and warn) our graduate students about finding bunny patterns in the clouds in their initial enthusiasm for identifying patterns.  Being the world’s foremost exponent (or proponent) of pattern recognition this might sound strange.  Mox nichts.  We just worry about getting the job done.  This might be a head and shoulders — the favorite pattern of bunny fanciers (who are also busy with Signor Fibonacci counting bunnies).  If it is it forecasts a target of 981.83.

Continue Reading

Is it over yet? S&P, F, C, BAC

Posted on Jul 23, 2010 by .

2

Screen shot 2010-07-22 at 6.48.22 PM

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p69418865904&a=2032821185

This is beginning to have the feeling of a Kilroy (H&S) bottom.  Today’s surge powered across a signal line.

Now.  Careful.  The nature of signals is this:  In trending markets they are dependable (within reason).  In trading and changing markets they are treacherous.

Continue Reading

 Page 1 of 3  1  2  3 »