Archive for January, 2011

Cobra and guinea pig…

Posted on Jan 29, 2011 by .

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We have been watching this chart with rapt fascination for months — the way a guinea pig watches a cobra which is about to eat him.  And then yesterday he ate us.

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Gold! Gold! Gold in….

Posted on Jan 28, 2011 by .

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Looks like a buy signal to us.  We’re buying some.

Interestingly, bouncing right off the trend line.  Strange how these serendipitous things happen.  Same with  silver.

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Crest of the wave. Downwave starts.

Posted on Jan 28, 2011 by .

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After 41 days of glacial drift upwards and (including today) 2 days of downdraft it looks like the wave has crested.  And this would appear to be the undertow day.  There is no way on earth (maybe in the stars or the spheres) to know how severe this wave will be.  There is some fairly serious support at 11433.  We  think the likelihood of a major trend reversal here is negligible.    the purpose of this downwave is to punish the public which has been getting out of bonds and back into equities.  So probably 5% or so will be sufficient.  The technical reason for the downwave is that there hasn’t been one for quite a while, added to which 12000 is a numinous figure.

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Buy signals.

Posted on Jan 24, 2011 by .

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108 points in the Dow.  And power bars all over the place.  We will be adding on to our positions shortly.  There is absolutely no sign of a downwave or retracement at this point, and that  is sort of surprising.  But, after all the last wave was 53 days long.  Of course that was following by a bit of pain.  But the wisdom of gritting teeth and bearing the pain has been amply illustrated.   We note with amusement (and have over the last month)  the predictors and forecasters who have been shorting and forecasting a wipe out.  Ourselves, we would never predict or forecast because that is the way to get egg on your face.

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Full moon madness. And silver and gold

Posted on Jan 22, 2011 by .

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Wednesday the werewolves and were-market makers and Goldman hammered the financials in honor of the full moon.  but the trend in the major indices sails serenely on.   This wave is 39 days, and there is still no down wave or retracement on which to base a trendline.  Of course you can always go to hourly bars, but all those preachers of gloom and doom who bailed out are now seeing the error of their ways.  Try to outsmart the market with a model and you find out how smart your model is.  (Usually not very smart.)

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