Archive for April, 2011

Shorts taking it in the shorts. Pundits too.

Posted on Apr 30, 2011 by .

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Here is a good picture of where things are really at.  Pundits, talking heads and shorts rejoice each time we get a downwave thinking that THIS IS IT, THE BEGINNING OF THE END!  Not realizing that it’s just a downwave.  This little downwave was about 2.87% in 9 days.  If you’re short and you’re taking comfort in these little waves you will soon be broke, because the bull response to this was a 9 day upwave of 6.11%.

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SLV. Silver, or Quicksilver?

Posted on Apr 27, 2011 by .

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No sooner had we made an analysis of the silver market than the silver market turned around and made us look like chumps.  What a difference a day makes — or four or five hours.  Now that the day is over what do we think?  Well we think that readers who follow our advice to trend-invest and not trade are smart readers.  We’re thinking about following our own advice.  Traders (ourselves included) were just head-faked, and when we took the fake silver scored (on us).

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SLV. TOP.

Posted on Apr 27, 2011 by .

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This looks like a top in silver to us.  So we sold our silver trade — note, trade, not investment.  We took 40% profits in our account.  In our sons’ accounts we took profits of 180% and 192%.  Our sons are better traders than we are (actually we just sort of trend trade their account and that is really more effective than what we do for amusement –which is trade too much.  Nonetheless it is indicative of the relative returns over the long term of trending versus trading.

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Spanking shorts–as we were saying…

Posted on Apr 23, 2011 by .

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If a 190 point day doesn’t make short queasy nothing will.  Let us specify how we feel about shorting.  We love it.  But, dear readers and students, shorting a roaring bull market is foolish in the extreme.  Fighting the trend is for gamblers, not traders.  Sometimes you make a quick hit.  Most of the time you get hit.  Don’t do it.  Wednesday and Thursday were buy signals in the Dow, and stocks in general.  In the Dow the old high was penetrated.  Balance that against the SPX not yet having penetrated.  But after the baying of the pundits (market overbought, market going to tank, market to market to market a fat pig…) seeing the market administer a lesson in black and white, confirming what we have been saying, was refreshing.

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Market rhythms…cha, cha, cha

Posted on Apr 19, 2011 by .

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We remarked a few days back — about the 6th that a change of rhythm was occurring.  And that certainly appears to be the case.  After a little upwave of about 7% and 16 days the downwave we are in now began — now at 9 days and 3.334% in the SPX.

Other changes are the recovery of treasuries and yesterday the downgap in the euro.

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