Archive for March, 2012

How many economists can dance on the head of a pin?

Posted on Mar 25, 2012 by .



Note the new long term trendlines from Jul 10 and Mar 09.

Or looked at another way, how many analysts fit into a thimble?  Sunday’s Times features an article by an economist we repsect, Paul Lim who noodles with the idea of bull market lengths and where we are at present in the average bull market picture.  Well, Lim can dance on the head of a pin.  He says that the average bull market is somewhat less than 4 years — so counting from March 09 the present bull is (this month) 3 years old.  Worry, worry.

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Bonds down, market up…

Posted on Mar 17, 2012 by .


The sell signal is clearly evident in TLT here –power bar on a downgap.  We have been watching it deteriorate for a couple of months with the downward bias becoming more and more noticeable.  Now the signal is in and we will be shorting it next week.

Once again we are not believers in forecasting, but the PnF chart, that unemotional forecaster of the runes, has a prediction.

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Buy signals.

Posted on Mar 13, 2012 by .


Sometimes the signals are like engraved invitations.  Just as we were opening our mouths to say that the next thing to expect was expanded volatility it reared back and smacked us in the face.  Since we are already long this is an add-on signal for us which we will be doing tomorrow.  You can almost pick your poison here.  The Dow, the Qs, the SPX — all were screaming buy me today.

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