Archive for July, 2012

Rocket ship? Mood change?

Posted on Jul 29, 2012 by .

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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p68983365835&a=214966864

In a trice the market mood changed Thursday and Friday.  Prices tore through the previous high Friday on strong power bars.  It took 2 days to recover a nasty little 4 day downwave and is indicative of the latent strength of the market.  This is the the fourth wavelet of this upwave and reaffirms the upwave — and what is very possibly a strengthening trend.  We would not be surprised to see surging prices next week.  All the major indices boomed up.  The bonds sold off and gold strengthened.

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Perils of Pauline…

Posted on Jul 26, 2012 by .

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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p68983365835&a=214966864

Just when it appeared that the market was about to be run over by the bears the Europeans made nice sounding noises and rescued prices from taking out the important low from July 12.  The penetration of this low, though it appears inconsequential, would have cast into doubt this entire upwave.  The power of the response indicates that there is plenty of buying power if the news situation — in particular Europe —  would stabilize.

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Traders still rule…for awhile

Posted on Jul 20, 2012 by .

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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p68983365835&a=214966864

Traders seized the chance to sell a 6 day upwave and jumped on it Friday.  The usual suspects were rounded up to take the blame — as in the blame  stays mainly in Spain.  Nonetheless a new higher high was made — by the hair on the chinnychinchin of the market.  So the bull wave is intact at this moment.

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Thinking, measuring, analyzing, intuiting …

Posted on Jul 15, 2012 by .

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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p68983365835&a=214966864

Our ADD, or ADHD, (or ADDicted) mind has been gnawing at the markets like a dog with a bone for weeks.  We think the economy is in a miserable state and will stay there until Congress makes some effort on the jobs front.  Good luck with that. That’s what we think.  We think Europe is in a depressing state.  We expect it to remain in that state until European leaders realize you can’t get euros out of a turnip, and you can’t get growth out of zero investment.

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5, 6 days down, works every time. Almost…

Posted on Jul 13, 2012 by .

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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p68821128571&a=214966864

It would not do to get overexcited about this power bar today, though it should be the end of the downwave.  It is a natural reaction to the 6 days of lower lows and a time honored market pattern.  Its significance will be determined next week.  But we are lifting most of our hedges as a short term bet.  We also closed our bet against the TLT.  In fact it is possible that nervous investors will pay the US government to return their capital to them, rather than giving them a return on capital.

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