Warren Buffet: Dow 1.000.000 in 100 years… Simple and obvious…

Posted on Oct 02, 2017 by in Letters

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p70142979615&a=266398464

Recently Warren Buffet made another of his seemingly aggressive statements about the market:  In a hundred years the Dow will top 1.000.000.  This is actually a no-brainer.  1.000.000. is  an under call.  The way to look at this is to calculate the projected CAGR (Compond Annual Growth Rate). Buffet’s statement predicts a CAGR of 3.76%.  A year ago when I published Sacred Chickens, the Holy Grail, and Dow Theory I calculated the CAGR of the Dow for 113 years at 7.87%.  So we can see that Buffet’s call is actually very conservative.

This is a fortuitous time to examine the question, since all the major indices keep lurching to new highs and  we have just seen new buy and add-on signals.  It is quite possible that we are seeing here the launch of a major new wave.  Donald Trump permitting.

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