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Fee Fi Foe , FXE FXF

Posted on Oct 10, 2011 by WHC Bassetti.

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You could just as well use eeny meeny miny more with these markets, but the trend line is broken in the euro with a power bar and a gap.  It does seem about time for a rally in the euro.  But traders who depend on a grand bargain to be struck with Angela and Sarko may find they have been fooled again.  But that is the essence of trading.  Venture a little, get your head handed to you, venture some more and you wind up like Paulson  (the good Paulson, not the evil Paulson).  Ever eager to kick Lucie’s football we will put a few small chips on it.

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Betwixt and between….

Posted on Oct 08, 2011 by WHC Bassetti.

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We booted our long trade in the SPX Friday as we analyzed that the upwave was ending.  Pretty short upwave.  3 days.  (7% profit) Now we are betwixt and between.  If we take out the last high, 1194.62, we will be stuck in the massive sidewave here.  If Friday’s high holds and we see three days away on the downside get set for the bobsled ride to the next recession.  We have already pointed out the developing pattern of lower highs and lower lows –two so far.  If Friday becomes another point the bull’s goose is cooked.  The death throes of the bull are written all over this formation.  The only thing that can save it is  a desperation wave above 1240.

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The bear eats a bull or two…

Posted on Oct 04, 2011 by WHC Bassetti.

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Shortly  we identified the head-and-shoulders formation we computed the possible targets for downside waves.  These may have seemed fanciful at the time.  But the achievement of target measurements occurred with breathtaking celerity.  In our charts of late there was another target lurking — like a crocodile beneath the water.  That was the 4th target of the rule of seven measurement we made — 903.x on the spx.

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Tempting the bear…

Posted on Oct 02, 2011 by WHC Bassetti.

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Friday was but the continuation of a downwave which started Tuesday by our method (which counts the last day of a wave with the dying wave and counts the same day as the start of the new wave.  We have read about every interpretation of this formation which could be thought of — including, if you would believe a mini-head-and-shoulders.  The truth is it’s not anything — or at least not anything you can look up.  A congestion zone, a wildly uncontrolled  rectangle.  There may be a hint of what is to come though.  Starting in late August we have a pattern of lower highs and lower lows.  Tuesday’s high is not yet a significant point, as we need 3 days away from it to give it significance.  Notice the 3-days-away rule reappearing.  A handy way to evaluate price behavior and determine whether it has validity or not.

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Short lived gold trade… breaking treasuries…

Posted on Sep 28, 2011 by WHC Bassetti.

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No sooner had there been a buy signal in the gold and silver than it was canceled.  Today.  Right now.  Talk about slippery markets.  We hate to post letter so often, but in these markets it looks like you might as be live full time.  We think some smart guys tried to buy the bottom in gold — the way they did several weeks ago — but his time they outsmarted themselves and bought the falling knife.  We’ll watch it and try to time the next knife.

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