Vexed VIX….hexed gold…

Posted on Jun 18, 2016 by .

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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p61658225390 In five days the VIX exploded more than 50%, from below 13 to above 21.  Turbulence of this sort generally presages  more unpleasantness for those who are not hedged, or unprepared.  What does it mean –?  In this bizarre and strange year with massacres, the British coming or going with assassination of parlamentarians, topped […]

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Searching (vainly) for signs of the grizzly market…

Posted on Jun 12, 2016 by .

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The most damaging thing you can do to your portfolio equity is to build a case –or try to build a case– for your market opinion.  A short and efficient road to ruin.  So we always check out reasonable bear market scenarios (being as some accuse us of being permabulls)  (An investment posture which has […]

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Sitting on an IED…

Posted on Jun 06, 2016 by .

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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p42576269608 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24SPX,PWTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20] The market charts are a picture of stagnation and risk.  While the PnF chart targets 2249 the totality of the chart for some 20 months is a massive top (?) or consolidation.  These formations, especially of such length, store up energy  like a volcano and eventually blow it off when the Fed makes […]

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The magazine cover jinx…

Posted on May 31, 2016 by .

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Clever observers have noticed a strange phenomenon:  Whenever the  magazine covers start trumpeting a bull market the market crashes — or vice versa.  This works for Sports Illustrated, and even sometimes in the stock market.  But basing investent decisions on such ephemera is a chancy procedure.  Nonetheless the punditry and the chattering class has had […]

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A moment of clarity?…

Posted on May 25, 2016 by .

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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p70142979615&a=266398464 What might be an A_B_C or an alpha-beta wave is throwing off buy signals.  Here in the SPX the pattern is not as clean or striking as in other issues, but after listless sideways drifting today looks like at least a small explosion and the buying signals should not be ignored. The signals occurred […]

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