There are ways to talk about the market, and about the economy, and about politics (gag) that are productive and then there are ways that are unproductive. The Media (TV, newspapers, internet) are the tools of mass hysteria and are mouthpieces of the herd. Often they are even used by “them” to spread disinformation.
Reading the media (or hearing) one is constantly reminded that man is directly descended from geese. Honk honk quack quack. Bleat enough about recession and suddenly you have a self fulfilling prophecy. We like to stick to facts and mock the pundits. Fact here is that as predicted prices fell out of the triangle and appear to be headed for a test of the low. Frankly the analysis here is so sound that no amount of honking and quacking can gainsay it. The trend is down.
Ah, but not in silver. (SLV) You will remember we mentioned silver. A downwave would not be unexpected here. Remember downwaves are not your enemy. They either stop you out of the position or allow you to raise your stops when the major trend resumes.
And not in OIL. When you get addicted to heroin you’re willing to pay or do anything to get more of it.
And not in DBA, agricultural commodities. (Though here in a downwave.) We see no reason why commodities should not continue their upward march.
After all when your calling card in the world appears to be worth less and less each day — along with your international reputation — there is every reason for the world to value the dollar in hard commodities like gold and soft commodities like wheat. Then when you have pursued political and economic policies of extreme improvidence the chickens (or geese) come home to roost.
But what about the declining cost of our exports? Dear readers what we are mostly exporting is American dollars to support a feckless war and also bull guano, which is obviously worth less and less everyday.
What we thought might be a bottom forming was just more of the same — a consolidation of the downtrend. The dollar is now in free fall. Don’t go down with it.