Archive for February, 2012

More crystal ball gazing

Posted on Feb 25, 2012 by .

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We delight in debunking rash forecasts and talking heads.  But its hard to argue with a computer — in this case the Stockcharts.com computer using generally accepted algorithms to analyze a PnF chart.  The analysis predicts a target of 1670 for the S&P.

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Are we there yet?

Posted on Feb 22, 2012 by .

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No and at this rate we may never get there.  We now have a series of waves 82 days long amounting to a near 25% advance.  The last leg of the wave — the present one — is 44 days and near 11%.  This wave has created  extreme restlessness in the investment community.  There are pundits who still think we are in a secular bear market, and analysts who believe that the present profits rolling in will be repaid by God with the black plague.  Add to them the contrarians, the traders, the pessimists, the anarchists, the guilt ridden who want to be punished and –not least — shorts who are having their shorts squeezed.

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Sumo currency.

Posted on Feb 19, 2012 by .

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Somewhere the Union Jack is flying eternally — maybe in Japan, because here are buy signals in the GBP/JPY.

Not just the Brits, but the Svitzers also — though given Swiss manipulation of their currency one might be wary here.

Even the battered and depreciated euro has a positive chart pattern against the Yen.

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The apple has come home to roost.

Posted on Feb 16, 2012 by .

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We remarked a short while back that Apple appeared to be going parabolic.  It’s hard for us to imagine that there is a trader out there who hasn’t heard our rant about parabolic curves — that they ALWAYS collapse.  Today Apple exhibited a classic reversal day.  Opened up strong, ran up more, then turned and finished  down 2.31% for the day.  Also the day is a key reversal day.  The results of this should be a sell off quite possibly back to 445 or, actually, who knows.  Since this is nothing more than a burp in the life of Apple dip buyers will be waiting eagerly.  For the record the stop we have calculated working off the Basing Point of 1/24 (419.55) is 398.57 (5% filter).

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Oh no. Barron’s INDU 15000.

Posted on Feb 12, 2012 by .

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In the Sports Illustrated financial version of the curse Barron’s arrives in the mail with a huge front cover headline: “15000”.  Traditionally a negative indicator for the immediate, but not that far fetched over the next two years.

Also one of the analysts we most respect, Larry McMillan:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/overbought-market-due-for-a-correction-2012-02-07?link=home_carousel

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