Archive for March, 2013

Believe. Believe in the Easter Bunny, the tooth fairy, the Supreme Court…

Posted on Mar 28, 2013 by .

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0328spx

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p34555890157&a=214966864

 

The title is just a bit of cheap irony.  As we say occasionally, the cynicism on this site is so cheap that minimum wage workers can afford it.  But not as cheap still as the cynicism of the AMR exec who wants $20M as a going away present.  (You could throw up over CEO compensation, and especially AMR compensation.  But that might damage your keyboard, so go do it in the sink.)

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Why no crash is imminent …

Posted on Mar 23, 2013 by .

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0323spxhttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p69143808658&a=252013707

We have previously remarked on reasons no crash was imminent — that the present wave structure is not characteristic of radical counterwaves.  Above is another technical reason that no major correction appears to be in the wind.  That is, the relationship of the wave to the important trendlines.

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Tides and waves…

Posted on Mar 20, 2013 by .

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0320spxhttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p43940581799&a=214966864

As certainly as there is a high tide, there will be a low tide.  As certainly as equity peaks it will experience lows.  Waves ebb and flow.  The higher the wave the more powerful the outflow.  We will all remember the films of the East Asian tsunamis  — with the huge wave crashing in, and then the sucking outflow carrying houses cars trees — anything not secured.

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Cyprus? Really, Cyprus?

Posted on Mar 18, 2013 by .

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0318spxhttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p33221059212&a=214966864

Traders used Cyprus as the excuse for a midnight Sunday attack on the market, driving the market down near 20 points.  They then began taking their ill gotten profits.  Looking at Friday’s volume (which may have been skewed by expiration) they did a lot of short covering there also.  Looking at our regular tracking chart we see how insignificant this event is.  We expect it will be like the Berlusconi bar back in February.  As always the full significance of this day will not be known until the week plays out.  But we have already made our bet.

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What’s going on …New phase strikes fear in heart of bears…

Posted on Mar 14, 2013 by .

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0314spxd

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p21464867259&a=214966864

The SPX here, and the Dow has been on a run of consecutive advances not seen since 1996.  What does this tell us?  It tells us that a new phase has dawned.  We would expect that anyway when a major new high is made.  But this run on top of that screams bull market.  Even Richard Russell has turned bullish.  He was practically waterboarded to admit that we are in a bull market.  Let us point out that by the rules of every system we know (especially Dow Theory) a bull market is either declared or confirmed.

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