Until last week we had seen 110 days where the S&P had not experienced a 1% move. That’s what’s going on (or not going on) in the market. What else is not going on is the folding of hedge funds. Mindich tossing in the cards on a $15B hedge fund (Eton Park), returning investors capital contributions and we heard that this is a happening occusrence in the hedge fund business. It reflects light on our previous snark remark: the hedge fund business is an income plan disguised as an investment strategy. Sooner or later people get wise. 2% and 20% gets tedious when theere is no performace, and performance is difficult when volatility is so dead that you have no trading opportunities for over a hundred days.
Remember that old saw? The market hates uncertainty? With a knuckle ball for president and a caucus which prides itself on sinking legislative initiatives it was not surprising to see Trump Care bite the dust. If this is an example of the administration’s competence, that looked for tax reform and infrastructure investment looks less and less likely. Isn’t that what we were betting on?
We barely have a toe in the market, and we think readers should be extremely cautious. What kind of volatility would occur if the FBI caught Trump with his hand in the Russian Laundry machine? BRUTAL…